Summary
The decrease in raw material prices and its impact on electric bikes
The costs of raw materials for batteries, essential to electric vehicles, continue to decrease. This should eventually lighten the price of electric bikes. Currently, the average price of a lithium-ion battery has dropped to $115 per kWh, a significant decrease from the previous $144. In China, this price is even lower, reaching $94 per kWh. This trend is explained by the overabundance of supply, particularly in China, where production for the electric vehicle sector remains intense.
Regional differences in the electric bike industry
In the United States, tariffs imposed on Chinese electric bikes could neutralize the effects of reduced battery tariffs for consumers. In Europe, potential duties on Chinese electric bikes could also have an impact. For an electric car, the battery constitutes about 40% of the total price. In comparison, on an electric bike sold for €3000, the battery often costs more than €600, highlighting the opportunity for price reduction thanks to the decrease in battery costs.
The safety of lithium and lithium-iron-phosphate batteries
The composition of batteries is evolving, with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries gaining ground thanks to their improved safety. Less expensive, mainly due to cheaper raw materials, these LFP batteries from China could surpass lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries by the end of the decade, despite their large size still limiting their use on bikes.
From August 2025, batteries will have to comply with a stricter standard to enhance safety, focusing on resistance to shocks and external elements.
Outlooks for the electric bike industry
According to Bike Europe, imports of electric bikes have decreased in Europe during the first months of the year. This is due to a market saturated by existing stocks rather than a volume of new productions using new cells, so the prices of new bikes should not drop immediately. Nevertheless, in the future, the reduction in battery cell prices could make electric bikes more affordable, aligning with the technology democratization objectives within the bike industry.
The company Gouach offers a repairable and dismountable battery, allowing for price drops benefits and easy cell updates. Their Infinite model is compatible with most systems and is sold as a kit or already equipped with cells.
